Trump Threatens to Double Tariffs on Mexico Over Migrant Caravan Heading to US Border

Long line of cargo trucks waiting at a US-Mexico border crossing at golden hour

President Donald Trump threatened on Thursday, November 12, 2026, to immediately double tariffs on Mexico if it does not stop a caravan of more than a thousand migrants walking north toward the United States, warning that the migrants would not be allowed to enter. The threat, issued in a social media post, raises the prospect of another major disruption to North American trade.

What We Know So Far

Short answer: President Trump wrote on Truth Social on Thursday, November 12: "Here we go again! They will not be accepted! MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED." An estimated 1,500 people, mostly from Central America, set off on Tuesday, November 10, from the southern city of Tapachula, near Mexico's border with Guatemala. Trump said Mexico, the governor of Texas, the Border Patrol and Immigration and Customs Enforcement had been informed of his position. He did not say which tariffs would be doubled, whether existing trade exemptions would remain in place, or when any new duties would take effect.

Mexico Pushes Back on the Caravan Claim

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged on Thursday that a group of people was walking northward toward the United States, but she said that no migrant caravans have arrived at the US border since Trump returned to power last year. "Since President Trump came into office, no migrant caravan has reached the northern border," Sheinbaum said at her daily morning news conference, according to a translation of her remarks. She acknowledged that two migrant caravans are currently traveling through southern Mexico but said Mexican authorities are working to manage the groups.

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin also wrote on social media following Trump's tariff threat. The caravan that set off from Tapachula on Tuesday was initially reported to include roughly 2,000 people, according to the Spanish news agency EFE, with Reuters putting the figure at about 1,500.

Shipping containers and cranes at a busy commercial seaport at sunrise

What Is at Stake for Trade

Mexico remains the United States' largest overall trading partner, with bilateral commerce totaling $96.34 billion in September alone. The United States and Mexico are currently negotiating a trade agreement after Trump chose in July not to extend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact. Current U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports already weigh on cross-border supply chains, including duties affecting Mexican steel and other manufactured products, and doubling them would raise costs sharply for American businesses that depend on Mexican goods.

It is also unclear what legal authority Trump would use to double import tariffs. The Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026, in Learning Resources v. Trump, that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize tariffs, so the legal basis for a sudden doubling is uncertain. Trump set no deadline in his post and gave no details on which duties he meant.

Why This Matters

The threat comes just days after last week's U.S. election, and it puts the new tariff pressure on the middle of an active trade negotiation with America's biggest trading partner. Caravans of migrants walking north from southern Mexico have been a recurring flashpoint in Trump's second term, and his warning that the group "will not be accepted" signals that border enforcement, not just trade, is driving the move. For the latest developments on this fast-moving story, follow our continuing coverage of US trade policy here.

What Happens Next

All eyes are now on Mexico City and on whether the caravan keeps moving north through Mexico. Sheinbaum's government has so far stopped caravans from reaching the U.S. border since January 2025, and how it handles this group will determine whether Trump follows through on the doubling threat. Any formal tariff action would also face questions about legal authority after the Supreme Court's February ruling, and about how it would affect the ongoing U.S.-Mexico trade talks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Trump threaten on Thursday?

President Trump threatened on Thursday, November 12, 2026, to immediately double tariffs on Mexico if it does not stop a migrant caravan heading toward the United States. He wrote on Truth Social: "MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED."

How many migrants are in the caravan?

An estimated 1,500 people, mostly from Central America, set off on Tuesday, November 10, from Tapachula in southern Mexico, near the Guatemalan border, according to Reuters. The Spanish news agency EFE initially reported the group included roughly 2,000 people.

What did Mexico's president say?

President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged that migrant groups are traveling through southern Mexico, but said no migrant caravan has reached the U.S. border since Trump returned to office in January 2025, and that Mexican authorities are working to manage the groups.

Which tariffs would be doubled?

Trump did not say. He did not specify which duties he meant, whether existing trade exemptions would remain in place, or when any new duties would take effect.

Does Trump have the legal authority to double the tariffs?

That is unclear. The Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026, in Learning Resources v. Trump, that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize tariffs, so the legal basis for a sudden doubling is uncertain.

How big is US-Mexico trade?

Mexico is the United States' largest overall trading partner, with bilateral commerce totaling $96.34 billion in September 2026. The two countries are negotiating a trade agreement after Trump chose in July not to extend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact.

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