October Inflation Came in Hotter Than Expected at 0.4% — and the Annual Rate Is Missing Entirely

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in October, hotter than economists expected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 — and the report came with an unusual hole: for the first time in memory, it contained no annual inflation rate at all. The BLS could not publish a year-over-year figure because it never collected October 2025 prices during last year's federal government shutdown, leaving no baseline to compare against.

The Short Answer

October CPI rose 0.4 percent month over month, above the 0.3 percent forecast, and core prices rose 0.3 percent, above the 0.2 percent forecast. The BLS published no 12-month inflation rate for either measure because October 2025 prices were never collected during the shutdown. The hotter core reading puts a bigger December rate hike on the table: the Federal Reserve meets December 8–9, and the odds of a half-point hike jumped from near zero to roughly one in ten.

What the October Report Showed

The BLS released the report at 8:30 a.m. ET on November 10. The seasonally adjusted all-items index rose 0.4 percent in October after a 0.6 percent gain in September — a slower monthly pace, but still a tenth of a point above the Dow Jones survey consensus of 0.3 percent. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy and is watched as a gauge of underlying price pressure, rose 0.3 percent for the third month in a row, against a forecast of 0.2 percent.

Shelter did most of the damage. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent in October and accounted for more than 30 percent of the monthly all-items increase, according to the BLS. Food prices rose 0.5 percent and energy rose 0.7 percent — far less than September's 5.2 percent energy jump, which is why the headline pace slowed. Used cars fell 1.2 percent. Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged did a month earlier.

Why There Is No Annual Rate

The missing 12-month figure stems from the federal government shutdown that ran from October 1 to November 12, 2025. During that lapse in appropriations, the BLS collected no price data for October 2025, so it could not compile a complete index level for that month. With no October 2025 baseline, there is no starting point to measure full-year change — for the headline index, the core index, food or shelter.

The last official annual rates, for September, were 3.7 percent headline and 2.6 percent core. Bank of America interpolated the missing baseline and estimates October's headline rate at roughly 3.8 percent and core at roughly 2.7 percent, each a tenth of a point above September — but those are estimates, not official figures. The data gap will make inflation harder to read for months: the November CPI report is not scheduled until December 10, the day after the Fed's December meeting ends. For more on how the cost of living shaped the midterms, see our coverage of Trump admitting the deportation crackdown was "too tough" after midterm losses.

the Federal Reserve building in Washington

What It Means for the Fed's December Decision

October's report is the last inflation reading the Federal Reserve will see before its December 8–9 meeting, and the core number landed exactly on a line a Fed governor had drawn hours earlier. Governor Christopher Waller had said publicly that if October core CPI came in around 0.3 percent, a half-point hike should be on the table. It did — 0.3 percent, for the third straight month.

Markets repriced the size of the move, not its direction. Before the release, the share of money betting on a half-point December hike was near zero; afterward it rose to roughly one in ten, while the odds of a standard quarter-point hike rose to about 85.5 percent from roughly 76–79 percent. The current policy rate is 3.75–4.00 percent. Stocks fell on the news: the S&P 500 closed down 0.38 percent on November 10. You can follow the latest inflation and Federal Reserve news as the December meeting approaches.

What to Watch Next

The Fed now votes on December 8–9 with October's partial picture as its freshest inflation data — and no annual rate to lean on. Waller's threshold gives the half-point camp a concrete argument, but a quarter-point move remains the market's base case. The next test comes December 10, when the BLS publishes November CPI, one day after the meeting ends. Until then, the October report's message is simple: prices are still rising faster than forecast, shelter is doing the pushing, and the number everyone usually quotes — inflation versus a year ago — simply does not exist this month.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the October 2026 CPI?

Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on November 10, 2026. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3 percent. Both came in a tenth of a point above economists' forecasts.

Why is there no annual inflation rate for October?

The BLS did not collect price data for October 2025 because of the federal government shutdown that ran from October 1 to November 12, 2025. Without an October 2025 baseline, it cannot publish a 12-month change for the headline index, core inflation, food or shelter.

What drove the October inflation reading?

Shelter rose 0.3 percent and accounted for more than 30 percent of the month's increase. Food rose 0.5 percent and energy rose 0.7 percent, while used cars fell 1.2 percent. Core inflation held at 0.3 percent for the third month in a row.

What does the CPI report mean for the Federal Reserve?

October CPI is the last inflation reading before the Fed's December 8–9 meeting. Because core inflation hit the 0.3 percent level Governor Christopher Waller had flagged, a half-point December hike is now on the table — its odds rose from near zero to roughly one in ten, though a quarter-point hike remains the base case at about 85.5 percent.

When is the next CPI report?

The BLS has scheduled the November CPI report for December 10, 2026 — one day after the Federal Reserve's December meeting ends.

Did real wages rise in October?

No. Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from September to October, seasonally adjusted, meaning paychecks bought no more than they did the month before.

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